Rising demand, constrained financial resources and
existing bottlenecks in supply as well as the need for efficient demand
management are challenges transport infrastructure operators will be facing in
the next 20 years. These are the headline findings from the second report in
PricewaterhouseCoopers
"Transportation
& Logistics 2030" series, carried out in cooperation with the
Supply Chain Management Institute (SMI) of the European Business School (EBS).
Respondents predict that shortages in transport
infrastructure will remain until 2030. They
expect that industrialised countries will lead in
transport infrastructure provision, with an average probability of occurrence
of 60%. Although emerging markets, such as India
and Russia,
currently heavily invest in transport infrastructure, they will not be able to
close the gap completely by 2030. The survey participants expects that strong
regulatory measures, such as toll roads or congestion charges, will compensate
for the increased level of investment in transport infrastructure.
Alexander
Sinyavsky, Partner
Transportation & Logistics Leader, PricewaterhouseCoopers in Russia, commented:
“Gaps in financing are a
paramount concern for all levels of infrastructure, local, national or
international. The challenge for both the public as well as the private sector
will be to identify ways of cooperation and to create the best win-win
situation.”
Klaus-Dieter Ruske, partner and global transportation
and logistics leader at PricewaterhouseCoopers, noticed:
“Demand will be managed
through regulatory measures, such as toll roads and congestion pricing, by
matching demand and supply at it most efficient point."
Governments, in industrialised as well as emerging
countries, are facing enormous challenges in attributing sufficient capital to
transport infrastructure investment. Therefore, respondents think that the
financing of maintaining existing infrastructure will be more difficult than
attracting investment in new infrastructure.
Transport infrastructure is one of the critical
success factors for a country's or a region's competitiveness, with the
potential to accelerate economic growth and investment opportunities.
Competitive advantages will also be realised by taking full advantage of the
potential of logistics clusters, where industry, academia and government
collaborate closely. The panellists think that of such clusters will activate
new potential in transport infrastructure development (with a probability of
occurrence of 75%).
Awareness about sustainability and climate change is
omnipresent, since the effects of transport infrastructure and transport
networks on the environment are profound. These impacts should be assessed from
a holistic, long-term perspective, particularly in light of the fact that
respondents think environmental costs will become an integral part of assessing
the full cost of a transport infrastructure project. Furthermore, they expect
that by 2030 transport infrastructure operators will participate in the
emission trading system by obtaining pollution permits, indicated by a
probability of occurrence of 78%.
The overall health of the world economy has direct
relevance for transport infrastructure, as GDP is a main indicator to forecast
demand for transport infrastructure, in particular that is needed for freight.
A PwC analysis suggests that, by 2019, the output of emerging and developed
countries will be nearly equal, but this parity will not last for long as the
E7 (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey) will retain
much stronger growth potential. From 2020 onwards, the E7 will break away from
the G7, with combined E7 GDP being projected by PwC to be around 30% higher by
2030 than total G7 GDP. While such forecasts are certainly indicative of
general trends, the impact of the economic crisis has shown that long-term
projections must be handled carefully. In 2010 uncertainty about the pace of
recovery from the crisis remains.
Roy Cummins, Chief Commercial Officer GlobalPortsInvestments
Plc (GPI) (a part of N-Trans Group), said:
“Economic growth will require continued capital
expenditure in transport infrastructure over the coming decades. Emerging countries such
as Russia
will catch up in regards to the supply of transport infrastructure, owing to
demand-driven investment from the private sector, as is already becoming apparent in the
port industry.”
Population density is a key indicator for the
assessment of future needs for public transport infrastructure development. The
world’s population is continuing to expand and is expected to grow by 1.4 bn by
2030. According to the United Nations, in 2015 emerging markets will already
account for nearly three quarters of the world’s urban population. Countries
such as Russia will
experience no change in population density, and in some countries such as Germany, Poland
and Japan,
population density is even likely to decrease. Governments around the world are
already beginning to address the challenges that rising trade flows and
population growth will bring, necessitating innovative and effective transport
infrastructure solutions. Many landmark projects can be found in emerging
markets. Russia
intends to construct 20,000
kilometres new railway lines by 2030, representing an
increase of 24%.
Promoted as the biggest
infrastructure project in history, China announced in March 2010 that
three railway corridors are planned. One will connect Beijing
and London; the second one will connect the
Asian countries Malaysia, Burma, Vietnam
and Thailand and China and the third one will connect China, Russia
and Germany.
China and Burma have already started
construction work, however financing seems to be the biggest issue facing the
project.
According to the International Transport Forum report,
transport infrastructure investment has accelerated strongly since 2003 in Central and Eastern
Europe (CEE) and the Russian Federation,
while its pace remained subdued in Western Europe and the United States.
PricewaterhouseCoopers
